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No. 538
There's a guy in Europe who's a big contender for a 1 billion euro fund going to some sort of high-pay off, high risk research project in Europe. His aim for the project is to simulate the human brain.
Uh, I'll just post the link.
http://www.nature.com/news/computer-modelling-brain-in-a-box-1.10066
Based on some back-of-an-envelope calculations, I have personally determined that it is probably possible to emulate a human mind with current technology (though probably at low fidelity).
It's not actually possible at the moment, however, because the neuroscience hasn't been done yet.
The way I see it, in order to get some idea of how to build an artificial sapience, someone first needs to analyse a working simulation of a human mind. That isn't going to be possible until you simulate a whole human brain, and its associated organs to boot. Once you get a complex model of a real human body working (the brain doesn't work in isolation) you can 'hack off' bits and abstract the fundemental processes to get a model for how a useful artificial sapience might work.
I can't see a single technological step change in so-called 'strong AI'. It takes about twenty years to grow and train a fully functional human being, I can't see it taking any less time to produce the first functional artificial sapience. Once it does come about, though, it should be relatively easy to simplify the technology and mass distribute it.
The question as to whether or not it's possible to fully emulate a human mind seems to me to be a (pardon the pun) no-brainer. I don't think it's possible with von Neumann architecture, but it's surely possible with an architecture that is based on parallel processing. That is, each artificial neuron (or perhaps a column of neurons) is its own computer, and those computers are networked. After all, a neuron is some 10-20 microns in size, and microprocessor tech is already operating on the nanoscale. That gives you two or three orders of magnitude to play around with, at least. Really, all an aritificial neuron absolutely needs to process is a list of signal strengths and the addressess of some 10,000 other neurons.
I know it's not necessarily that simple, but I'm not a neuroscientist. All I know is, the brain is composed of cells, and those cells don't individually engage in particularly complex behaviour. It's rather simple (though specific) behaviour, not currently thoroughly understood, and there's a lot of them. It's something that organic chemistry shat out when it wasn't even trying.
I suppose the trick will be finding some way of scanning the human brain, using some algorithm to mathematically model how different clusters of neurons behave during a single human lifetime, and then apply those models to an artificial brain custom designed for the purpose.
I suppose I think it will be possible to 'save' your mindstate before it will be possible to emulate your mindstate, before it will be possible to create artificial mindstates. In my mind, it really has to occur in that order.
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