>>
|
No. 76737
>>76734
If this were October you'd be right, but we're beyond that point now. The first caucus is in 5 weeks, which is well "in sight". 2012 was famous for its Republican candidate carousel, Cain last for all of a month. Michele Bachman won the Iowa staw poll before that, then it was Perry and Gingrich and Santorum, all of them were battered by the media over weird/dumb stuff they said, and as a result they all fell away. The only effect the primary had was forcing Romney to say stupid things during the primary that he wasn't able to totally recant in the general election. He lost because he was forced to come too far to the right.
This is part of the reason why Trump is doing so well, because the far-right base is basically saying "fuck it all, we're going to support our candidate no matter what they say because we want a 'real conservative'". They've completely disregarded the media and want to ride the tiger no matter where it leads.
This is why Republicans are basically bracing for the real possibility that Trump will be the most popular candidate throughout the primaries. Keep in mind, he doesn't actually have a huge chunk, it's somewhere from a quarter of the support to a third, there's just so many candidates that the "opposition" to Trump is split. The insignificant candidates might drop out but they don't hellza matter much anyway, what matters is that support is split between Cruz, Carson, Rubio, Christie, Bush... so long as all those people stay in the race, there's a ballza chance Trump will at least have a plurality of delegates going to the convention. Bernie Sanders has more consistent support among Democrats than Trump does with Republicans, but he only has one real opponent so he's way behind. If the GOP fucks Trump out of the nomination at the convention or by pulling some shenanigans, then he'll probably run as an Indie, or wanna go to war or something.
The reality is that Cruz is probably less electable than Trump, mostly if he sticks by his 30% federal sales tax proposal. Carson's on his way down and the most likely to get out. The others have a lot of money and probably won't drop out unless the primaries start and they get nothing.
The best hope for the GOP is Marco Rubio, everyone kinda knows it, but the rabid right-wing fanatics hate him because he worked with Democrats to do immigration reform that never went through anyway. Even if they do decide on him in the end, he might have been pushed too far to the right, like Romney before him, to win a General.
Weirdly enough this clusterfuck may be ballza for the GOP. If Cruz or Trump does become the nominee they'll lose in a landslide, the far-right wing of the party will finally be discredited and shamed fully, and Republicans can build themselves back up based on old-fashioned conservatism and reason rather than Neo-Know-Nothing-ism.
|