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A new era of peace? OR more political posturing? Place ur bets!!
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It does really depend on how Trump will play it. There's little doubt that Kim is simply trying to play him. Get all this hype going, get Trump himself all excited about being the peacemaker, and make denying the North's favored terms harder to deny. It's basically the same game Iran played, have a big peace negotiation and make the stakes increasingly high so the west will look unreasonable if they turn it down. As a result, you get all your sanctions lifted in exchange for a short term deal favorable to you.
This is my bet, the best case scenario is that North Korea will agree to "denuclearize" after some 5-10 years of a peace process which opens up and legitimizes a one-man regime that still runs rat-fucking gulags. Which would be a monumentally worse deal than what the Iran deal was, and it comes down to whether Trump signs it so he can brag about being a peace-bringer and dealmarker, or whether he backs away from it, in which case the whole thing was an embarrassing waste of time that would still probably be better for the US in the long run. There's no way NK will ever do a straight denuclearize/lift-sanctions deal like what we had with Iran. Nor should that be the US' goal.
Really the whole idea is bonkers to me. There's no way any deal is going to be beneficial to us, our goal should be to get rid of little fat goblin and unify the Korean peninsula. Do it through some 20-year plan with China where they get to have a real puppet state for a little while and slowly intermingle it. NK is using the nuclear issue as a wedge to make themselves a permanent state with a permanent dynasty and power structure. It's all about longevity for one fat little faggot and we shouldn't be entertaining it.
Dickwaggling during a de facto or official war has worked as a reelection strategy for some presidents. Not many people would put it past Trump to do anything to get reelected, up to and including a war.
Among the potential setups for a war could be to make a deal with the expectation that it'll fail. "Oh noes I can't believe Rocketman went back on his deal now let me find where I put those launch codes." Think of it as the foreign policy version of issuing predatory loans and expecting to foreclose on the property later.
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I kind of want kim's sister to lecture me about juche while sitting on my face
I don't think "Wagging the Dog" in this case would work in the current political environment. The only reason why Trump is President is because Clinton was a reflexive warmonger that scared/annoyed enough non-interventionists left and right to stay home or vote for Trump. Starting a new war in either Korea or Iran would be his nail in the coffin, so to speak, more potent than any investigation.
Of course NK knows this as well, and is leveraging the fact that the US doesn't want a real war along with Trump's desperate need to make some kind of deal to try and get him to agree to something stupid for the US. When the alternative is just crawling back to the US and admitting the whole thing was a waste of time, or actual war, then it makes it difficult to say no to any deal where NK "denuclearizes".
Thing is, even if this works with NK because Kim really wants to be able to buy all his really cool western shit again, it won't work with Iran. They already have their favorable deal and if you tear it up you're going to be left with the same shitty options, invade them or Iran gets a nuke by Christmas, and there will be no "coalition of the willing".
"Trump '16: He'll Keep Us Out Of War!"
My first thought is "yeah, okay, I'm sure that'll work exactly as well as it did with Wilson." My second thought is to remind myself not to expect another nuclear war only to get disappointed when it doesn't happen yet again.
Nuclear war was never really the issue. The issue is to try and spend another bazillion jillion dollars and 20 years trying to do a nation-building crusade in Iran because krooked kike Bibi did a cute little powerpoint presentation. And Iran would be a tenth of the problem North Korea would be.
Trump is just taking credit for diplomatic talks that have been going on between North and South Korea for years. He truly does believe, I think, that his Twitter bullying was monumental in doing something, though. But that's because he's been completely out of touch with reality since the early 80s.
Wait, Trump's the president of South Korea now?
Moon knows that if Trump gets a Nobel he'll get one too.
Still, that doesn't mean he's totally wrong. Thinking that any of the tweets had any real bearing on the overall picture is hard to justify. It was really the timing of the Olympics that gave diplomats on all sides the opening to soften relations. Trump seemed more or less unconcerned with the issue beyond Little Rocket Man dick measuring, and allowed his diplomatic staff, filled with mostly career government people (deep state kek), to do the heavy lifting, including pretty much all the negotiations. Of course it would have been pretty much the same under any other President.
All this cope. Talks were going nowhere until Trump scared the fuck out of the chinks and norks by parking 2 aircraft carrier groups right next to NK. Trump was exploiting his image of being unstable. I don't doubt that we would have escalated eventually to war, it's unacceptable to allow North Korea to have nuclear tipped missiles that can target the US, he's 90% of the way there, just needs reliable reentry vehicles.
Talks had been "going nowhere" because they were literally not allowed to take place. The Republicans went batshit whenever Obama floated the idea of peace talks with North Korea, ready to call him every name in the book if he even made an overture towards it. He was only able to do Iran because they were multilateral talks, and even then they went nuts because he was able to successfully stop Iran from getting a nuke and they couldn't handle that.
North Korea's regime is falling the fuck apart. We have soldiers with stomach parasites because they're eating shit running across the DMZ through gunfire. We now know that at least one of their nuclear test sites underground is essentially destroyed, and they don't have enough resources to sustain a true arsenal. The nuclear program has always been about legitimacy and permanency. The reds, including China, have had nukes forever and the world hasn't ended. NK wants them not because they want to actually use them, but because it means they get to be a shitty little country forever because no one can attack them without a nuke going off somewhere.
They're talking because Moon and Trump, the Appeasement Bros, are offering them permanency and legitimacy without nukes. Trump is already telling our troops to draw down on the DMZ. If Obama did that alone you'd have rednecks climbing up the walls with rage.